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Indiana vs Miami prediction: Beat writers' picks for CFP national championship

Matthew Glenesk, USA TODAYJanuary 19, 2026 at 8:57 PM

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Indiana vs Miami prediction: Beat writers' picks for CFP national championship

The College Football Playoff national championship game is here. Will it be Indiana or Miami lifting the trophy after tonight's title game at Hard Rock Stadium?

Writers from IndyStar, The Herald-Times and Palm Beach Post, all part of USA TODAY Co., provided their predictions for tonight's CFP national championship game.

Indiana vs Miami: Who has edge in CFP national championship game?

CFP national championship prediction: Miami vs Indiana picks

∎ Indiana 20, Miami 14: It's hard to picture a more complete football team than Indiana, as strange as that is to write. It's easy to peg this as another showdown between Miami's top-flight defense and a similar offense, just like Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. Or one between two elite defenses, as we saw with Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. But the Rebels' defense was a more meager 29th, and the Buckeyes' offense was 21st. The Hoosiers are No. 3 on offense (41.6 points per game) and No. 2 on defense (10.29 ppg). Their Heisman-winning quarterback led the nation in passing touchdowns, but they're primarily a run-based offense behind Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, ranking 11th in rush yards. Their defense is right up there with Miami's averaging three sacks a game. There's nothing the Hoosiers can't do.

The good news is Miami did well against the three other top-20 rush attacks it's faced this year (Florida State, USF and Notre Dame averaged just 88 yards per game). They'll have home-field advantage, something no team playing for the title has had since the Hurricanes dynasty of the 1990s. But Indiana's proven its ability to win big games on the road with its first game at Oregon and its incredible comeback at Penn State. And the absolute tear they've been on in the CFP (outscoring Alabama and Oregon 94-25) shows no signs of slowing down. — Dan Rorabaugh, Palm Beach Post

∎ Indiana 27, Miami 21: Razor thin. Indiana is the better team all around. What Miami does well, it does better, physical on offense and so disruptive on defense. It’s hard to know how much homefield advantage will factor in here, but it’s probably safest to assume IU will have enough fans in the stadium to make things closer to equal. If that’s the case, I’ll back the team with more matchup advantages, barely. — Zach Osterman, IndyStar

∎ Indiana 38, Miami 17: Indiana football has proven to be an unstoppable juggernaut in the CFP.

The Hoosiers went from bullying Alabama in the quarterfinals to slamming the door on Oregon's hopes of winning a rematch between the programs the following week. They dominated those games in all three phases from play 1-150 as their coach likes to say.

Miami has built up some momentum of its own in the postseason, but the Hurricanes are a No. 10 seed for a reason. They lost a pair of games in the regular season with a roster that isn't nearly as talent-laden as the last three teams IU has faced.

Could UM pull off a stunner? Stranger things have happened, but there's no evidence that Indiana will suddenly make the costly mistakes that have tripped up higher seeds in recent years and that's what would need to happen here for the Hurricanes to pull out a victory.

While Miami is playing at home, all the tickets that go to corporate sponsors will likely prevent the crowd from tilting too decisively in either team's favor. Indiana probably wouldn't be bothered by a Hurricane-flavored crowd anyway having won this season in some of college football's toughest environments.

This is Indiana's moment and they aren't going to let it go to waste.

CFP national championship odds: Indiana vs Miami spread

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Sunday, Jan. 18

Spread: Indiana (-7.5)

Over/under: 47.5 points

Moneyline: Indiana (-325) ∣ Miami (+260)

Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite over Miami heading into Monday night's national championship game, according to the latest odds from BetMGM.

When is 2026 CFP national championship game? What time is kickoff tonight?

The College Football Playoff national championship game is listed at 7:30 p.m. ET Monday, Jan. 19, 2026, though kickoff will be closer to 7:50 p.m. ET.

Where is the CFP national championship game tonight?

The College Football Playoff national championship game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

What TV channel is CFP national championship game on? Where to watch CFP national championship game tonight? -

TV: ESPN, with Chris Fowler (play-by-play), Kirk Herbstreit (analysis), and Holly Rowe and Molly McGrath (sideline reporting)

ESPN2 will have a "Field Pass" broadcast led by Pat McAfee. Other ways to watch include ESPNU's "Skycast," ESPN News' "Command Center."

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